Paradise Valley is still a seller’s market, but it is weakening fast. The Cromford Market Index for Paradise Valley fell 30% in a single month, landing at 146.2 as of the week of October 1, 2026. That is the steepest single-month drop among all 18 tracked Valley cities, and it pushed Scottsdale — which barely moved — to the top of the table for the first time in records going back to 2010.
Your position at the table just shifted, whether you are buying or selling
If you own in Paradise Valley and were planning to sell, the market still technically favors you — a CMI above 110 is a seller’s market by Cromford’s definition. But a 30% drop in one month is a signal, not a blip. Buyers have more choices now. Sellers who priced for the peak will feel it.
If you are shopping in the Valley’s western or southern suburbs, the data are more blunt. Eight of the 18 tracked cities are now buyer’s markets, meaning the CMI sits below 90 there. Maricopa is at 44. Queen Creek is at 49.1. Buckeye is at 50.5. In those cities, buyers have real leverage right now.
The shift is Valley-wide. Every single city tracked by the Cromford Report is moving in a buyer-favorable direction at the same time. That has not happened since November 2023. If you are on the fence about timing a purchase, the trend — running every week since mid-August — is pointing one direction.
What the Cromford Market Index is — and why the thresholds matter
The Cromford Market Index measures the balance between supply and demand in a local housing market. A score above 110 means conditions favor sellers. A score between 90 and 110 means the market is roughly balanced. A score below 90 means buyers have the upper hand.
The index changes as listings rise or fall and as buyer activity picks up or slows down. A city can move between tiers in a single month if the supply-demand gap shifts sharply — which is exactly what happened to Paradise Valley and Fountain Hills in September 2026.
Paradise Valley’s -30% drop: the supply and demand math behind it
Paradise Valley did not drift lower. It fell hard and fast. In roughly one month, supply in the town jumped 19%. At the same time, demand dropped 17%. Both forces pushed the CMI down together, from what would have been close to 209 a month ago to 146.2 today.
Fountain Hills followed almost the same script. Supply there rose 20% while demand fell 16%, producing the same 30% decline in the CMI — now at 136.1. Both cities are still in seller’s territory, but both lost nearly a third of their market strength in a month.
Scottsdale, meanwhile, slipped just 1% to 154. Because the two cities above it fell so far, Scottsdale now holds the top spot on the 18-city table. That has never happened before in Cromford’s records, which go back to 2010.
Scottsdale takes the top spot — for the first time since 2010
Paradise Valley had long held the strongest market reading among tracked Valley cities. Scottsdale taking that position is not just a data quirk. It reflects a real shift in which market is drawing the most relative buyer interest against available supply.
Scottsdale’s CMI of 154 is the strongest in the Valley right now. Cromford noted that Scottsdale “has taken first place from Paradise Valley even though its own index slipped 1%.” The milestone — first place for Scottsdale in records dating to 2010 — was not driven by Scottsdale getting stronger. It was driven by the markets above it falling sharply.
Full 18-city CMI table: every Valley market ranked right now
Here is where every tracked city stands as of the week of October 1, 2026. Seller’s market is above 110. Balanced is 90 to 110. Buyer’s market is below 90.
| City | CMI Score | Market State |
|---|---|---|
| Scottsdale | 154 | Seller’s market |
| Paradise Valley | 146.2 | Seller’s market |
| Fountain Hills | 136.1 | Seller’s market |
| Chandler | 123.3 | Seller’s market |
| Cave Creek | 120.7 | Seller’s market |
| Phoenix | 104.9 | Balanced market |
| Avondale | 104.2 | Balanced market |
| Mesa | 102.9 | Balanced market |
| Gilbert | 101.4 | Balanced market |
| Glendale | 100.8 | Balanced market |
| Peoria | 83.3 | Buyer’s market |
| Goodyear | 72.3 | Buyer’s market |
| Tempe | 71.1 | Buyer’s market |
| Surprise | 64.4 | Buyer’s market |
| San Tan Valley | 53.4 | Buyer’s market |
| Buckeye | 50.5 | Buyer’s market |
| Queen Creek | 49.1 | Buyer’s market |
| Maricopa | 44 | Buyer’s market |
Fountain Hills and Tempe: the other big movers this month
Three cities moved the most in a single month. Paradise Valley and Fountain Hills both fell 30%. Tempe fell 20%, landing at a CMI of 71.1 — firmly in buyer’s market territory.
Tempe’s drop is notable because it puts the city well below the 90 threshold. A CMI of 71.1 gives buyers meaningful leverage there. Sellers in Tempe are competing against more listings with fewer active buyers than just a month ago.
Valley-wide trend: weakest average CMI since November 2023
The average CMI across all 18 cities is down 11.2% from last month. That follows a 7.8% weekly decline the prior week — meaning the pace of deterioration is speeding up, not slowing down.
Cromford described this as “much less favorable for sellers than last week’s 7.8% decline” and called it “the weakest reading since November 2023.” The trend has run in one direction — every week since mid-August. All 18 cities are now moving buyer-favorable at the same time, which has not happened since November 2023.
For a broader look at how Valley cities were positioned heading into this shift, see the full 18-city CMI ranking and balanced-market breakdown. For Glendale’s specific September reading, see the Glendale CMI September 2026 report.
Where things stand now — and what to watch next
The Cromford Report does not project forward, and neither do we. What the data show is a clear, consistent, accelerating trend that began in mid-August and hit its sharpest single-week reading in the first days of October 2026.
If you own in a city that is already in buyer’s market territory — Maricopa, Queen Creek, Buckeye, San Tan Valley, Surprise, Tempe, Goodyear, or Peoria — that condition is unlikely to reverse quickly when all 18 cities are moving the same direction. If you are in a balanced-market city like Phoenix, Mesa, or Gilbert, watch the next monthly reading. The five cities currently in balanced territory sit between 100.8 and 104.9 — not far above the 90 threshold that separates balanced from buyer’s.
Paradise Valley and Fountain Hills are still seller’s markets by the numbers. But a 30% drop in a month, driven by a simultaneous surge in supply and drop in demand, is the kind of move that changes negotiating rooms quickly.
