Yes, Phoenix is now a balanced housing market. The Cromford Market Index for Phoenix city proper sits at 108.3 — just inside the neutral zone between seller and buyer territory. That number is down 8% from a month ago. Across the broader Valley, the average CMI just hit its lowest point since December 2023.
If you’re buying or selling right now, here’s the leverage shift
A balanced market means neither side controls the table. Sellers can no longer expect every home to draw multiple offers above asking. Buyers are gaining room to negotiate — but not everywhere. The Valley is splitting into three very different environments, and which city you’re shopping in makes a bigger difference right now than almost any other factor.
If you’re selling in Paradise Valley, Scottsdale, or Fountain Hills, you still have the upper hand. If you’re selling in Maricopa, Queen Creek, or Buckeye, buyers have had the leverage for months. If you’re in Phoenix proper, Glendale, or Gilbert, you’re in the middle — and that middle is moving.
The trend has gotten worse for sellers every single week since mid-August. Last week the Valley average was down 4.6% from the prior month. This week it’s down 7.8%. That acceleration matters whether you’re pricing a home to list or deciding when to make an offer.
One specific cause: mortgage interest rates rose sharply over the last month, with the steepest climb in the final week. The Cromford Report says demand has reacted in the opposite direction — buyers are pulling back. At the same time, extra supply at the high end of the market that Cromford had been expecting for September has now arrived, hitting luxury cities the hardest.
What the Cromford Market Index means and where Phoenix stands
The Cromford Market Index measures market conditions on a 0-to-200-plus scale. A score above 110 favors sellers. A score from 90 to 110 is balanced. A score below 90 favors buyers. Phoenix city proper lands at 108.3 this week. That puts it in balanced territory — barely.
Across all 18 large Valley cities the Cromford Report tracks, five are still in seller’s territory, five are balanced, and eight are in buyer’s territory. That 8-city buyer count is the most significant shift. A year ago this split looked very different.
The complete Valley scorecard: all 18 cities ranked by CMI
Here is every tracked city, its current CMI score, its market state, and its month-over-month change where reported.
| City | CMI Score | Market State | Month-over-Month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paradise Valley | 164.4 | Seller’s market | -22% |
| Scottsdale | 157.8 | Seller’s market | +3% |
| Fountain Hills | 152.2 | Seller’s market | -20% |
| Chandler | 127.1 | Seller’s market | — |
| Cave Creek | 124.6 | Seller’s market | — |
| Phoenix | 108.3 | Balanced market | -8% |
| Avondale | 107.7 | Balanced market | — |
| Mesa | 107.6 | Balanced market | — |
| Glendale | 104.6 | Balanced market | — |
| Gilbert | 104.5 | Balanced market | — |
| Peoria | 86.7 | Buyer’s market | — |
| Tempe | 74.8 | Buyer’s market | -19% |
| Goodyear | 74.0 | Buyer’s market | — |
| Surprise | 67.3 | Buyer’s market | — |
| San Tan Valley | 54.5 | Buyer’s market | — |
| Buckeye | 51.1 | Buyer’s market | — |
| Queen Creek | 51.1 | Buyer’s market | — |
| Maricopa | 46.2 | Buyer’s market | — |
Source: Cromford Report, week of September 24, 2026. Month-over-month changes shown only where Cromford reported them explicitly.
The biggest monthly movers — and one city that bucked the trend
Paradise Valley fell 22% month-over-month. It still leads the Valley at 164.4, but that drop is steep. Fountain Hills fell 20%, landing at 152.2. Tempe dropped 19% and slipped deep into buyer’s territory at 74.8.
Scottsdale moved in the opposite direction. It gained 3% and now sits at 157.8. That gain was enough to leapfrog Fountain Hills. Scottsdale is now second on the Valley table, one slot above Fountain Hills.
The Cromford Report explains why luxury markets took the hardest hit: the extra September supply at the high end that Cromford had anticipated has now shown up. More listings at the top of the market, less buyer demand due to higher rates — that combination moves the needle fast.
Why the market is weakening — and how fast it’s moving
The Cromford Report points to two forces working together. First, mortgage interest rates have risen sharply over the past month. The sharpest increase came in the final week of the period. Second, demand has moved in the opposite direction — fewer buyers are active.
The deterioration has been steady. The market weakened every week since mid-August. At last week’s pace, the monthly decline was 4.6%. This week it accelerated to 7.8%. That is the weakest Valley average CMI reading since December 2023.
For Glendale specifically, the Cromford Market Index sits at 104.6 this week. You can read more about what Glendale’s balanced market CMI means for local buyers and sellers.
Where things go from here
The Cromford Report does not project future CMI scores in this release. What the data shows is a clear direction: the market has weakened every week for more than a month, and the pace of that decline is getting faster, not slower.
Watch mortgage rate movement. The Cromford Report identifies rates as the direct driver of the current demand drop. If rates stabilize or pull back, some of this pressure eases. If they stay elevated or climb further, expect more cities to slide from balanced into buyer territory.
Five cities — Phoenix, Avondale, Mesa, Glendale, and Gilbert — all sit in the 104 to 108 range. Any one of them could cross below 90 in the coming weeks if the trend holds. That would move the buyer-city count from eight to as many as thirteen out of eighteen.
If you’re tracking new construction, Lennar recently paid $60 million for 444 lots near TSMC’s Phoenix campus — a signal that at least one major builder still sees long-term demand in the north Valley. Read the full story: Lennar buys 444 lots near TSMC Phoenix for $60 million.
