Fountain Hills is still a seller’s market, but it just recorded the steepest single-month Cromford Market Index drop in the Phoenix Valley. As of the week of October 8, 2026, its CMI stands at 124.7—down 34% from one month ago. That kind of move in four weeks is rare, and it has a specific cause.
Your position as a Fountain Hills seller just got more complicated
If you are selling a home in Fountain Hills right now, you still have an advantage—a CMI above 110 means the market favors sellers. But that advantage shrank fast. One month ago, conditions were dramatically stronger. Now, there is 25% more competing inventory on the market than there was thirty days ago, and demand has dropped 18% at the same time. That combination is what pushed the CMI down 34%.
In plain terms: more homes are sitting, buyers have more choices, and the leverage you had last month is smaller today. You are not in a bad position, but you are in a weaker one. Pricing to the current market—not to where the market was in September—matters more than it did a few weeks ago.
If you are a buyer, this shift gives you more negotiating room than Fountain Hills has offered in a while. You are not in buyer’s territory yet, but you are closer than you have been.
What the Cromford Market Index is and why it matters
The Cromford Market Index is produced by Cromford Associates LLC. It measures the balance between supply and demand in a given city. A score above 110 favors sellers. A score between 90 and 110 is balanced. A score below 90 favors buyers. The higher the number, the more power sellers hold. The lower it goes, the more buyers gain.
The CMI is calculated from real-time listing and contract data. It is one of the most closely watched indicators in the Phoenix Valley because it moves ahead of closed-sale prices. When the CMI drops sharply, price pressure usually follows.
The supply and demand mechanics behind Fountain Hills’s drop
Two things happened at once in Fountain Hills. Supply jumped 25% in a single month. Demand fell 18% over the same period. Either one alone would have moved the CMI. Together, they produced a 34% decline.
Paradise Valley experienced a nearly identical shock. Its CMI dropped 32% to 135.3. Supply there rose 21% in a month, and demand fell 18%—the same demand decline as Fountain Hills. These two cities sit in the same Northeast Valley luxury corridor, and they moved together.
Scottsdale, the Valley’s strongest market at CMI 149.1, held its lead. But even Scottsdale’s gap over Paradise Valley widened—from 7.8 points last week to 13.8 points now. That spread tells you Scottsdale is holding while its neighbors soften.
Fountain Hills is known for its landmark fountain and mountain backdrop. The town’s housing market just recorded the Valley’s largest single-month CMI drop as of October 2026. (Photo courtesy Fountain Hills)
Full October 2026 Valley CMI table: all 18 cities ranked
Here is where every large Valley city stands as of the week of October 8, 2026, per the Cromford Report.
| City | CMI | Market State |
|---|---|---|
| Scottsdale | 149.1 | Seller’s market |
| Paradise Valley | 135.3 | Seller’s market |
| Fountain Hills | 124.7 | Seller’s market |
| Chandler | 121.1 | Seller’s market |
| Cave Creek | 117.4 | Seller’s market |
| Phoenix | 102.4 | Balanced market |
| Avondale | 101.8 | Balanced market |
| Mesa | 99.5 | Balanced market |
| Gilbert | 99.0 | Balanced market |
| Glendale | 97.7 | Balanced market |
| Peoria | 80.3 | Buyer’s market |
| Goodyear | 71.6 | Buyer’s market |
| Tempe | 67.9 | Buyer’s market |
| Surprise | 62.4 | Buyer’s market |
| San Tan Valley | 52.9 | Buyer’s market |
| Buckeye | 49.8 | Buyer’s market |
| Queen Creek | 47.3 | Buyer’s market |
| Maricopa | 42.8 | Buyer’s market |
The spread from top to bottom is 106.3 points. Scottsdale and Maricopa are in fundamentally different markets right now.
The Valley’s scorecard: five seller’s markets, five balanced, eight buyer’s markets
Of the 18 cities tracked, 5 are seller’s markets, 5 are balanced, and 8 are in buyer’s territory. The buyer’s-market cities include several that were balanced just weeks ago. Tempe’s drop of 21% to a CMI of 67.9 stands out. It is a different kind of city than Fountain Hills, but it landed in buyer’s territory by the same period—showing the shift is broad, not just a luxury-market story.
For a deeper look at the full Valley distribution and how Phoenix itself fits in, see our 18-city Valley CMI ranking.
The Valley-wide trend: weakest reading since November 2023
The average CMI across all 18 cities is down 12.9% from last month. That follows a 11.2% decline the week before. Every city is moving in a buyer-favorable direction. The trend has deteriorated every week since mid-August.
That makes this the weakest Valley-wide CMI reading since November 2023. It is not a single-city anomaly. It is a broad, sustained shift that has been building for nearly two months.
The Phoenix Valley’s housing market has shifted across all 18 tracked cities since mid-August 2026, with 8 cities now in buyer’s territory as of October 8, 2026. (InsideTheValley.com)
Watching the next CMI release: what to look for
The Cromford Report updates weekly. The questions worth watching for Fountain Hills: does supply keep rising, or does it level off? Does demand stabilize or continue to fall? If both trends reverse, the CMI can recover quickly. If supply keeps climbing while demand stays soft, expect the gap between Fountain Hills and Scottsdale to widen further.
For a close parallel, see our coverage of Paradise Valley’s -32% CMI drop this same week. The two towns moved almost identically, and watching them together will show whether the Northeast Valley luxury corridor stabilizes or keeps softening.