The Phoenix Valley housing market is shifting toward buyers, but it hasn’t fully crossed the line yet. As of the week of October 15, 2026, the Cromford Market Index for the City of Phoenix sits at 99.5—below the psychological midpoint of 100, but still inside the balanced zone. Eight of the 18 tracked Valley cities are now in buyer’s territory, and every single city moved in a buyer-favorable direction for the second week in a row.
Your negotiating position just got stronger—here’s how much
If you’re actively shopping for a home in the Valley right now, the data is moving in your favor. Eight cities are already in buyer’s markets, meaning sellers there are under real pressure to negotiate on price, repairs, and terms. Five more cities—including Phoenix itself—are in the balanced zone but leaning your direction.
If you’re selling, the news is harder. Every city in the Valley is weaker than it was a week ago. The Valley-wide average CMI has dropped every week since mid-August. That’s a consistent, multi-month slide, not a one-week blip.
The spread between cities is enormous right now. Scottsdale buyers face a strong seller’s market. Maricopa sellers face a market that heavily favors buyers. The city you choose matters as much as the house you choose.
What the Cromford Market Index actually measures—and where the zone lines are
The Cromford Market Index, published by Cromford Associates LLC, measures the balance between supply and demand in each city. The number tells you who has leverage at the negotiating table.
The three zones work like this: above 110 is a seller’s market, meaning sellers have the upper hand. Between 90 and 110 is a balanced market, where neither side dominates. Below 90 is a buyer’s market, meaning buyers carry the leverage.
A score of exactly 100 sits at the dead center of the balanced range. Phoenix at 99.5 is just below that midpoint—balanced, but now tilting toward buyers. It is not a buyer’s market by the index’s own definition.
Phoenix at 99.5: balanced, but now leaning toward buyers
One week earlier, Phoenix measured 102.4. It has now slipped to 99.5, dropping 11% versus the same point last month. That puts it just below the center of the balanced range.
This distinction matters. Several outlets have reported Phoenix as a buyer’s market. By the Cromford Report’s own thresholds, that isn’t accurate yet. It leans that way. The trend is clear. But at 99.5, sellers in Phoenix still have a roughly even table—just slightly less even than before.
The City of Phoenix sits at CMI 99.5 as of the week of October 15, 2026—balanced but leaning toward buyers. (InsideTheValley.com)
The full Valley scorecard: all 18 cities, their CMI score, and their zone
Here is every tracked city, ranked from strongest to weakest, with its current Cromford Market Index score and market classification as of the week of October 15, 2026.
| City | CMI Score | Market State |
|---|---|---|
| Scottsdale | 144.2 | Seller’s market |
| Paradise Valley | 127.3 | Seller’s market |
| Chandler | 117.6 | Seller’s market |
| Fountain Hills | 115.3 | Seller’s market |
| Cave Creek | 111.4 | Seller’s market |
| Phoenix | 99.5 | Balanced market |
| Avondale | 98.5 | Balanced market |
| Gilbert | 96.7 | Balanced market |
| Mesa | 95.6 | Balanced market |
| Glendale | 94.1 | Balanced market |
| Peoria | 76.1 | Buyer’s market |
| Goodyear | 69.1 | Buyer’s market |
| Tempe | 65.0 | Buyer’s market |
| Surprise | 60.2 | Buyer’s market |
| San Tan Valley | 51.5 | Buyer’s market |
| Buckeye | 48.5 | Buyer’s market |
| Queen Creek | 45.8 | Buyer’s market |
| Maricopa | 41.7 | Buyer’s market |
The gap between Scottsdale at 144.2 and Maricopa at 41.7 is 102.5 points. That is the same market cycle, same month, same county—and entirely different leverage at the negotiating table.
Biggest monthly movers: Fountain Hills, Paradise Valley, and Tempe
Three cities moved dramatically in a single month.
Fountain Hills dropped 34% from last month and now sits at 115.3. That sounds strong, but it has already slipped behind Chandler into fourth place in the Valley ranking. It lost 9.4 points in a single week. Supply in Fountain Hills is up 25% from a month ago, while demand has fallen 18%.
Paradise Valley fell 32% and now measures 127.3. Like Fountain Hills, it is still a seller’s market—but the speed of the drop is notable. Paradise Valley also shows 21% more supply than a month ago, with demand down 18%.
Tempe fell 20% and now sits at 65. That puts it firmly in buyer’s market territory, well below the 90 threshold.
Suburban Phoenix neighborhoods like these sit across vastly different CMI zones depending on city—from buyer’s markets below 90 to strong seller’s markets above 110. (InsideTheValley.com)
The Valley-wide signal: every city down, weakest streak since November 2023
The Valley-wide average CMI is down 14.5% from last month. That follows last week’s 12.9% decline. It is the weakest reading since November 2023.
Every city’s index is lower than it was a week ago. That synchronous decline—all 18 cities moving in the same direction at the same time—has now happened two weeks in a row. The trend has deteriorated every week since mid-August.
That is a consistent, broad-based shift. One or two cities dropping is noise. All 18 dropping together, week after week, is a signal.
Where the index goes from here, and what to watch
The Cromford Report updates its market data weekly. The direction is clear: every metric in the October 15 reading favors buyers more than the week before. Whether Phoenix crosses from balanced into buyer’s territory depends on the next several weeks of supply and demand data.
Watch Fountain Hills and Paradise Valley specifically. Both are still seller’s markets by the numbers, but both are shedding points at a rate that could change their classification within weeks if supply stays elevated and demand stays soft. Tempe, Surprise, Queen Creek, Buckeye, San Tan Valley, and Maricopa are already deep in buyer’s territory—and have been for at least this month’s reading.
For buyers targeting the mid-Valley, Phoenix, Avondale, Gilbert, Mesa, and Glendale are all balanced but below their prior readings. Any of them could tip into buyer’s territory in the next update.
