Phoenix is now a balanced housing market. The Cromford Market Index for Phoenix sits at 108.3, just inside the 90-to-110 range that Cromford defines as neither a buyer’s nor a seller’s market. That shift matters if you are buying or selling right now: sellers have less leverage than they did a month ago, and buyers have more room to negotiate than at any point since late 2023.
Your negotiating position just changed — here is how much
If you are selling a home in Phoenix today, the market is no longer working automatically in your favor. A CMI above 110 means sellers hold power. A CMI below 90 means buyers do. At 108.3, Phoenix sits in the middle — and it got there fast.
One month ago, Phoenix was likely in seller’s territory. Now it is not. That means buyers can reasonably ask for concessions, price reductions, or repairs that sellers would have laughed off earlier this year. If you are a seller, pricing correctly matters more than it has in two years. If you are a buyer, the window to negotiate is open.
The broader Valley picture makes this even more important. Eight of the 18 cities Cromford tracks are now in buyer’s territory. Only five are still seller’s markets. The Valley is splitting into two very different experiences depending on your ZIP code.
The Cromford Market Index is the most widely cited measure of supply-demand balance in the Greater Phoenix housing market. Readings above 110 favor sellers. Readings below 90 favor buyers. The zone between those numbers is balanced ground.
The full Valley scorecard: all 18 cities ranked by CMI
Here is where every tracked city stands, from strongest to weakest, as of the week of September 24, 2026, according to the Cromford Report.
| City | CMI Score | Market State |
|---|---|---|
| Paradise Valley | 164.4 | Seller’s market |
| Scottsdale | 157.8 | Seller’s market |
| Fountain Hills | 152.2 | Seller’s market |
| Chandler | 127.1 | Seller’s market |
| Cave Creek | 124.6 | Seller’s market |
| Phoenix | 108.3 | Balanced market |
| Avondale | 107.7 | Balanced market |
| Mesa | 107.6 | Balanced market |
| Glendale | 104.6 | Balanced market |
| Gilbert | 104.5 | Balanced market |
| Peoria | 86.7 | Buyer’s market |
| Tempe | 74.8 | Buyer’s market |
| Goodyear | 74.0 | Buyer’s market |
| Surprise | 67.3 | Buyer’s market |
| San Tan Valley | 54.5 | Buyer’s market |
| Buckeye | 51.1 | Buyer’s market |
| Queen Creek | 51.1 | Buyer’s market |
| Maricopa | 46.2 | Buyer’s market |
The spread between the top and bottom is striking. Paradise Valley at 164.4 and Maricopa at 46.2 are 118.2 points apart. That is not one housing market. It is many markets sharing a metro area.
Five seller’s markets, five balanced, eight buyer’s markets — the Valley is splitting
The five cities still in seller’s territory — Paradise Valley, Scottsdale, Fountain Hills, Chandler, and Cave Creek — are all on the northeastern or eastern side of the Valley. They tend to carry higher price points.
The five balanced cities — Phoenix, Avondale, Mesa, Glendale, and Gilbert — sit close to the 110 line. Glendale’s CMI of 104.6 puts it in the same balanced band as Phoenix, though the two cities have very different home price profiles.
The eight buyer’s markets stretch from Peoria at 86.7 down to Maricopa at 46.2. At that level, buyers hold significant leverage. Sellers in Maricopa, Queen Creek, Buckeye, and San Tan Valley are competing hard for a smaller pool of buyers.
The three biggest movers: Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, and Tempe
Paradise Valley fell 22% month-over-month. That is the largest single drop in the table. Even so, its CMI of 164.4 keeps it firmly in seller’s territory — the fall just means it is less extreme than it was.
Fountain Hills dropped 20%, landing at 152.2. It is still a seller’s market, but it lost significant ground.
Tempe tells a different story. It fell 19% and dropped to 74.8 — well into buyer’s territory. Tempe sellers are now on the wrong side of the line.
One city moved in the opposite direction. Scottsdale gained 3% and climbed to 157.8, leapfrogging Fountain Hills into second place. That anomaly stands out in a month when almost every other city weakened.
Why the CMI has fallen every week since mid-August
The Cromford Report identifies two forces working together against sellers.
First, mortgage rates rose sharply over the past month, with the steepest climb coming in the final week of the period. When rates jump, demand falls. Cromford’s own commentary notes that demand has reacted in the opposite direction from rates — meaning as rates went up, buyer activity went down.
Second, the high-end September supply that Cromford expected has now arrived. More homes listed at the top of the market means more competition among sellers in exactly the cities — Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills — that were previously the strongest.
Put both together and you get the weakest average CMI reading since December 2023. The 7.8% month-over-month drop followed a 4.6% drop the week before. The trend has not paused or reversed since mid-August.
What buyers and sellers should watch for next
The Cromford Report does not forecast future readings, and neither do we. What the data does show is a clear, unbroken directional move. Every week since mid-August has been weaker than the week before it.
If you are selling in Phoenix, Avondale, Mesa, Glendale, or Gilbert, you are in balanced territory — meaning the market will not do the heavy lifting for you. Pricing and presentation matter more now.
If you are selling in the outer West Valley — Buckeye, Queen Creek, Maricopa — you are competing in a buyer’s market. Expect longer days on market and more buyer requests for concessions.
If you are buying anywhere in the Valley, the data says your position is stronger than it was two months ago. That does not mean prices have dropped — CMI measures supply-demand balance, not price levels. But it does mean sellers are more motivated to negotiate.
The Cromford Report publishes updated data weekly. The next reading will show whether the rate-driven slide has continued or whether any relief in mortgage rates has steadied demand.
